Catena Media Pulls Its 2026 Growth Target After Weak Q3
If you’ve ever clicked through a “best UK casino bonuses” comparison page while hunting for somewhere new to play, there’s a decent chance Catena Media was behind it. The Malta-based affiliate group has just torn up its 2026 growth targets after a bruising third quarter, with shares tumbling and the company now blaming a fast-moving shift in how people search for casinos online.
What’s been released
Catena Media put out preliminary, unaudited Q3 figures this week confirming what it called a “weak” quarter.
Catena Media has released its “weak” Q3 2026 results, showing that it experienced a 29% year-on-year drop in revenue from €11.6m (£9.76m) to €8.3m.
Adjusted EBITDA dropped significantly, falling by over 75% from €2.9m to €0.7m YoY, including a reversal of €0.7m of accruals made earlier in the year for the 2026 employee bonus programme.
The reaction from investors was immediate.
Shares in Catena Media slumped by more than 21 per cent in Stockholm Monday after the iGaming affiliate warned that its third quarter revenue would fall 29 per cent.
For the first nine-months of 2026, revenue is expected to be down 3 per cent at €30.1 million, with adjusted EBITDA declining 11.5 per cent to €4.6 million.
The business also flagged a sizeable non-cash impairment on intangible assets tied to the quarter.
What’s changed
The headline change is to guidance:
Catena Media no longer expects to hit its 2026 target of double-digit organic growth in group revenue and adjusted EBITDA following a “weak” Q3.
The company’s own explanation points squarely at how search engines now work.
Catena Media said that its traditional search rankings declined, due both to AI-assisted personalised search patterns and also to search engines continuing to elevate lower-relevancy content in search results.
Some operators also trimmed marketing spend over the summer, adding to the squeeze.
Because of how the business is structured, it has little cushion against this kind of shock.
Since the company acquires more than 90% of new customers under CPA deals, the group has limited recurring revenue to buffer against such a combination of market pressures, it revealed.
CEO Manuel Stan was candid about the scale of the hit, saying
“This was a weak quarter and our results reflect that. The search landscape is undergoing a rapid and fundamental shift”
that affects a CPA-led business “immediately and in full”.
Where it fits
For UK players, affiliate sites like Catena’s are often the first stop before a new casino account ever gets opened, so a wobble here says something about the wider machinery that points people towards licensed operators and their latest game launches. Stan framed the result as a reason to accelerate change rather than retreat, saying the group is
“reducing our dependence on search by diversifying our revenue streams, including through our newly announced TraffiqX project and new verticals like prediction markets, and by continuing to build the strength of our brands through investing in customer loyalty programmes”
.
It’s not all downturn, either.
The news marks another rough quarter for the business, which has struggled significantly in recent years amid the rise of AI affecting search traffic and other factors, although it has enjoyed something of a recovery since the end of 2025.
Whether that recovery can hold while the company leans harder into loyalty schemes, newer betting verticals and brand-building rather than pure search traffic will be the thing to watch when full Q3 results land and Catena sets out its next steps in more detail.
Sources
- SBC News – Catena Media withdraws double-digit growth hopes after “weak” Q3
- Gambling News – Catena Media Revises Guidance, Cites Weak Q3 for Performance Projections
- Next.io – Catena Media slashes targets on “weak” Q3 2026 performance
- Gaming Intelligence – Catena Media expects third quarter revenue to decline 29%
- iGaming Future – Catena Media Q3 Revenue Falls 29% Amid Search Shift
