IG Group Applies for UK Gambling Licence to Run Predictions

A familiar name from the world of spread betting is edging back into UK wagering territory. IG Group, the FTSE 100 trading firm, has filed for a UK Gambling Commission licence as it prepares to roll out a prediction markets arm covering sport, politics and entertainment. It is the clearest sign yet that the line between financial trading apps and regulated betting products is starting to blur.

What’s been released

IG Group has applied for a UK gambling licence to offer prediction markets covering sports, politics and entertainment, with a launch planned for early 2027, submitted through its London subsidiary, IG View Limited.

The application was submitted under the trading name “ig prediction markets”, and the UK Gambling Commission’s public register lists the application for a remote general betting licence covering real events as pending.

IG Group will reignite its sports betting ambitions 16 years after departing the scene, revealing plans for a UK prediction market launch beginning with a rollout in late Q4 2026.

Financial prediction markets will launch in Q4 2026 for UK professional clients, with the licence, once granted, expected to broaden the offering to politics, entertainment and sports in early 2027.

What’s changed

The staggered rollout exists because the UK splits oversight of this kind of product between two regulators.
IG intends to introduce its prediction products in stages because financial and non-financial contracts fall under different British regulatory frameworks, with the Financial Conduct Authority regulating financial derivatives including binary options, which have been prohibited for UK retail customers since 2019.

The company says its offering will be the UK’s first 24/5, tax-free, regulated financial prediction markets proposition, offering contracts on sports, politics and entertainment.

IG is leaning on recent dealmaking to build the consumer-facing side of the business.
It follows a $1.1bn purchase in principle for Underdog, a US-focused daily fantasy sports and predictions operator, with the predictions side of the business internationally expected to expose the wider IG brand to younger audiences, as over 60% of Underdog’s active users are under 30 against IG Group’s existing average customer age of 42.

The unified international platform featuring prediction markets will roll out across IG Consumer’s European and Asia-Pacific markets throughout 2027.

IG argues there is unmet UK demand to capture.
The company said UK prediction markets demand is going offshore, citing Similarweb data from April which found around two million UK visits to offshore prediction market platforms, up 377 per cent in two years.
For UK gambling watchers, the regulator has already made its position clear on how such products should be treated.
The Gambling Commission has stated that if a prediction market operator were to launch in Great Britain, it does not believe they would be able to classify themselves as non-gambling products, and that operators not licensed in Great Britain should ensure they are not targeting or transacting with GB consumers, as there are criminal offences associated with operating without an appropriate licence.

Where it fits

For players used to slots, live tables and casino apps, prediction markets sit at the edge of what counts as gambling, blending trading-style contracts with outcomes on sport, politics and pop culture. IG’s move adds another name to a UK Gambling Commission licence list already populated by prediction specialists, and it lands at an awkward tax moment:
General Betting Duty is set to rise from 15% to 25% in April 2027
, a change that will land not long after IG’s retail rollout is meant to begin.

Whether this reshapes anything for mainstream UK casino players remains to be seen, since IG’s early focus is squarely on professional clients and financial-style contracts rather than slots or live dealer tables. But as more regulated operators test the prediction markets format under Gambling Commission oversight, it is a space worth watching for how British gambling products continue to diversify beyond traditional casino and sportsbook formats.

Sources

• SBC News – Can IG Group stick the landing for UK prediction markets launch?
• InterGame Online – IG Group confirms Q4 launch for UK prediction markets arm
• World Casino Directory – IG Group Plans UK Prediction Markets Launch for 2027
• Focus Gaming News – IG Group bets on prediction markets as trading and gambling converge
• Finance Magnates – Weekly Review: IG Seeks UK Gambling Licence