UKGC Study Finds Illegal Sites Fuel UK Problem Gambling

Val D · 31 October 2026

Fresh research from the Gambling Commission has put some hard numbers behind a question UK-licensed operators have been asking for years: who actually ends up on illegal gambling sites, and what does that say about the state of the regulated market? The answer, drawn from millions of flagged bank transactions, is that the people most likely to stray onto unlicensed platforms are also the ones showing the clearest signs of problem gambling.

What’s been released

The regulator’s latest piece of work is an Open Banking data analysis,
published on 28 October 2026
, which sits alongside an earlier Phase 3 report into illegal site use that came out on 20 October. For the headline study,
the UK Gambling Commission analyzed 157.2 million banking transactions from approximately 38,000 individuals, utilizing financial data collected by YouGov
. From that dataset,
researchers identified specific payments between consumers and illegal companies, as well as the associated harms and financial behaviours
, narrowing in on
3,426 transactions with suspected illegal operators, linked to 179 individuals
.

What’s changed

The standout figure is the gap in problem gambling markers between the two groups.
The regulator discovered that 45% of players on illegal gambling websites scored eight or higher on the Problem Gambling Severity Index, compared with just 6% of gamblers using licensed websites
, meaning illegal-site users were roughly seven times more likely to fall into that highest-risk band. The pattern holds further down the scale too:
another 17 percent of illegal-site users scored between 3 and 7, a range signalling moderate risk, while only 9 percent of licensed customers landed there
.

Crucially, the study found illegal play tends to sit on top of, rather than instead of, licensed activity.
Among people with repeated detected payments to illegal operators, 91% also gambled with licensed ones
, and for those with multiple illegal transactions,
in the month after their first flagged payment they still averaged 23.7 licensed transactions alongside 4.9 illegal ones, and six months after it was 23.6 licensed against 1.5 illegal
. The Commission was careful to flag the limits of the work:
it cannot show that illegal sites cause harm, it misses crypto payments and the panel is not nationally representative
, with Regulus Partners’ Dan Waugh noting
“it’s a small-scale study survey”
.

Where it fits

This builds on the Phase 3 research published ten days earlier, which looked at why people drift towards unlicensed platforms in the first place. That work mapped out distinct user types, including
a small group who use illegal sites to get around GamStop, and others who gamble on illegal sites on purpose, driven by distrust of the licensed market and a desire for better value and personal freedom
. It also found that
the search phrase “not on GamStop” has become a main route to illegal sites, with looking for sites that GamStop does not block among the strongest predictors of illegal-site use
.

For a market used to hearing that tighter rules simply push players offshore, the data is more nuanced: most people who touch illegal sites keep playing on licensed ones too, rather than abandoning the regulated sector altogether. That’s a useful reminder, as UK operators continue rolling out new slots, live tables and app features this autumn, of why staying within a licensed, audited environment remains the safer route for players who want fair games and proper protections, whatever pressures the wider market is under.

UKGC Study Finds Illegal Sites Fuel UK Problem Gambling

What’s been released

What’s changed

Where it fits

Sources

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